• Oakmount and Partners

How the Economic Machine Works! By Ray Dalio.

Updated: Aug 14, 2018

"How does the economy really work?" Based on Dalio's practical template for understanding the economy, which he developed over the course of his career, the video breaks down economic concepts like credit, deficits and interest rates, allowing viewers to learn the basic driving forces behind the economy, how economic policies work and why economic cycles occur. 


Ray Dalio has reached the part of his life where he is giving back.


Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates out of his apartment in 1975, and now the long-running hedge fund is recognized as the world’s largest by assets under management (AUM) with $122.2 billion, and as the fifth most important private company in the United States by Fortune magazine.


However, since 2011, the billionaire has passed the baton for the role of CEO at Bridgewater – and he’s also been focused on passing on his knowledge as well.


THE KNOWLEDGE BATON

Most recently, Ray Dalio has been praised for releasing his book entitled Principles: Life and Work, where he outlines the principles that have guided his impressive success with Bridgewater.


Just as timeless, however, is this 30 minute animated video that he and Bridgewater released a few years ago, which gives their unique template for how the global economy works. It’s possible that you may have seen this before – but if not, it can be a useful tool to understand how the pieces fit together.

Dalio starts at the micro level, showing how individual transactions are part of the overall economic machine. Then, using human nature and history as a guide, Dalio reduces the complex global economy down to just three major forces that must be understood.


THREE MAJOR FORCES

Dalio says this model has guided Bridgewater for over 30 years, and that there are three major forces that shape the economy:


1. Productivity Growth Productivity growth, which is measured as a percentage of GDP, grows over time as knowledge, technology, and innovations help to raise our productivity and living standards.


2. Short-Term Debt Cycle Usually lasting 5-8 years, the short-term debt cycle is a repeating pattern that occurs as credit expands and contracts.


3. Long-Term Debt Cycle Usually lasting 75-100 years, the long-term debt cycle usually ends in a period of extreme deleveraging, where global debt is unsustainable and asset prices fall.

Based on Dalio’s model and his concerns about the abuse of money printing by central banks, it’s clear why he routinely holds gold for about 5-10% of his personal portfolio, as well.


RULES OF THUMB

The video ends with Dalio giving three rules of thumb – takeaways that make sense for individuals, companies, and policymakers.


Rule #1. Don’t have debt rise faster than income Your debt burdens will eventually crush you.


Rule #2. Don’t have income rise faster than productivity You’ll eventually become uncompetitive.


Rule #3. Do all that you can to raise productivity In the long run, that’s what matters the most.


With an estimated net worth of $17 billion, it seems Dalio’s rules could be worth keeping in mind.


“Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world.” 

― Nelson Mandela

For the avoidance of any doubt, nothing on this website is intended to constitute advice to you and the content is displayed for illustrative and information purposes only.


Oakmount and Partners Ltd. Est 2009.

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